Fed Countdown! Dollar Weakness Sets Up Major FX Moves

The Fed decision is just hours away, and I’m positioning for what looks like a very dovish outcome. Markets are pricing in a 95.9% chance of a 25bps cut, with a slim 4.1% leaning toward 50bps. In other words—it’s essentially locked in.

This isn’t just about September. The market is already looking ahead to another cut in October and potentially one more in December, bringing total easing this year toward 75bps. With inflation cooling, the labor market softening, and trade tensions easing, the Fed has the green light to push rates lower.

That sets up the USD for broad weakness, and I’m already positioned long on majors.

EUR/USD: Currently trading near 1.1763, my first target is 1.1870 with a year-end target at 1.20.

GBP/USD: Sitting near 1.36, I’m targeting 1.3720 short term and see further upside momentum.

AUD/USD: At 0.6670, I remain confident in my 0.68 year-end target—a level I flagged since January.

USD/JPY: Trading around 147, but I see a breakdown opening the path to 144, 142, and potentially 138.

Gold is also in play, with upside momentum building toward $1,600–$1,700.

With the Fed about to confirm the market’s dovish expectations, we could see a breakout across FX majors.

I’m excited—this is where opportunity lives.

Register here for the next webinar: https://acy.com/en/education/webinars/

Join Luca's Telegram Trading Feed: https://t.me/+bkfmaA76P2VlMTQ1

Free Trading eBook Series: https://acy.com/en/education/ebook/

Open a Live or Demo Account here: https://acy.cloud/open-live-account?u...

Catch up with the latest news and market analysis here: https://acy.com/en/market-news

This content may have been written by a third party. ACY makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplies by any third-party. This content is information only, and does not constitute financial, investment or other advice on which you can rely.