Sticky Inflation Could Fuel Bullish USD, Safe-Haven Gold Rally

Today’s US CPI release is critical. I’m watching both core and headline figures, month-on-month and year-on-year. The consensus already points to hotter inflation than previous readings. Headline CPI is expected at 0.3% MoM, up from 0.1%, while the YoY figure rises to 2.6% from 2.4%. Core CPI also holds firm at 0.3% MoM, with the YoY number climbing to 3% from 2.8%.

This paints a clear picture of sticky inflation in the US economy—more resilient than the market hoped.

The USD has already posted nine straight days of gains, and if CPI comes in hot, I expect that streak to extend. EUR/USD likely faces further downside under a stronger dollar.

Gold, on the other hand, could catch a bid. Sticky inflation tends to raise safe-haven demand, especially if rate expectations get repriced.

In short, I anticipate a bullish USD continuation and a possible move higher in gold, depending on how the CPI data lands. Risk management is key—volatility around these events can be intense.

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