Friday Forex Frenzy: NFP Predictions & Market Moves!

All right, guys, it's Friday, and it's the first Friday of the month. Today is the 5th of July, and you already know what's up—it's NFP day, the non-farm payroll day. Before we dive into the details, I'll share my opinion on the non-farm payroll and its potential impact. From there, we'll decide if the outcome is likely to be good or bad.

The NFP is scheduled for 10:30 p.m. Australian time, so set your timers or check the economic calendar for your local time. Now, let's examine the data and market predictions for this non-farm payroll. We need to consider several key metrics: average hourly earnings, non-farm payroll, unemployment rate, private non-farm payroll, and the participation rate.

All of these are important. If we only get the unemployment rate or the non-farm payroll, and it's just a bit up or down, it won't have the same effect as if all metrics move significantly in one direction. The impact is greater when there are ups and downs across all data points.

The consensus for average hourly earnings is 0.3%, down from the previous 0.4%. The non-farm payroll consensus is 191,000, compared to the previous 272,000, which means around 70,000 fewer jobs. The unemployment rate is expected to stay at 4%, the same as before. Year-over-year average hourly earnings are projected at 3.9%, down from 4.1%. For private non-farm payroll, the consensus is 160,000, down from 229,000—a significant drop of 50,000 to 60,000 jobs.

Given these figures, I expect a stronger dollar and possibly an unemployment rate higher than 190,000. We might see a decrease in average hourly earnings or numbers close to expectations.

Key assets to watch for volatility include the US dollar, the US dollar index, and any pairs involving the US dollar. Gold might continue to rise. Specifically, the USD/JPY could continue its uptrend, potentially breaking through 161.500, 162.000, and heading towards 165.000, barring any interventions from the Bank of Japan.

For the EUR/USD, I foresee it rising until the news release, then possibly dropping back to around 1.27600.

That's my take for tonight's NFP. I hope you found this helpful. Please subscribe to the channel, give us a thumbs up, share this content, and enjoy your weekend. Remember, we'll be back next Monday and Tuesday with a webinar. If you haven't registered yet, click the link in the description. Join our Telegram group as well if you haven't already.

Enjoy your weekend, spend time with family and friends, and take a break from the screens after this busy week. See you next week!

Register here for the next webinar: https://acy.com/en/education/webinars/

Join Luca's Telegram Trading Feed: https://t.me/+bkfmaA76P2VlMTQ1

Free Trading eBook Series: https://acy.com/en/education/ebook/

Catch up with the latest news and market analysis here: https://acy.com/en/market-news

Learn More:

https://youtu.be/PGr1lxRNWJg

https://youtu.be/d5yiwpIs5ZY

https://youtu.be/XMntC-5lRuY

https://youtu.be/HOPOYC_JXz4

https://youtu.be/5JHIZKBUhuM

This content may have been written by a third party. ACY makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplies by any third-party. This content is information only, and does not constitute financial, investment or other advice on which you can rely.