USD at Risk? My Bearish Playbook Ahead of Jackson Hole

Jackson Hole, USD Volatility, and What I'm Watching Next

Today is Wednesday, and we’re just one day away from the Jackson Hole Symposium — a key event where central bank leaders, including the ECB, Fed, RBA, and others, gather to discuss global economic trends. Although only about 120–200 people attend, the market impact is often massive. I expect heightened volatility from Thursday through Saturday, with potential carryover into next week.

Geopolitically, there’s talk about Trump and Zelensky reaching an agreement involving drone exports and a $90 billion aid deal. While that’s still speculative, it could affect the USD, especially considering America’s persistent twin deficits — a long-standing issue of spending more abroad than it brings in. This weakens long-term demand for the dollar, except during risk-off spikes.

On the data front, Canada’s core CPI came in unchanged at 0.1% MoM, while headline CPI rose to 0.3%, slightly above the previous 0.1%. For me, that signals stable core inflation, with a slight uptick in overall prices — not enough to shift my current bias.

My View on the USD

I remain bearish on the US dollar. It’s currently trading around 98.380, and I’ve been watching for a move to 98.500 — a level I mentioned in yesterday’s webinar. If we reach it, I see great opportunities to short the USD, especially against the EUR, GBP, and JPY.

Any rally in USD/JPY or dips in EUR/USD and GBP/USD could offer high-probability setups. My near-term target? Around 97.000 on the dollar index, driven by potential dovish signals coming out of Jackson Hole.

Final Thoughts

Volatility is coming — and that’s opportunity. Stay alert from Thursday through early next week.

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