US PPI Surges: What It Means for USD & Forex Traders

Luca Santos - Market Analyst

2025-08-15 18:35:33

 

 

This week, the US Producer Price Index (PPI) came in much hotter than expected, rising 0.9% month-on-month—0.7% higher than consensus. As a trader, I see this as a major signal that inflation pressures are building at the producer level. Costs are flowing from wholesale into retail, meaning higher prices for consumers could be on the horizon.

Even though the Consumer Price Index (CPI) this week came in roughly in line with expectations, the PPI spike is significant. It highlights that producers are facing rising costs, and those costs are being passed on. This creates opportunities for traders in USD pairs as the dollar reacts to shifting inflation dynamics.

Looking at the forex market, I’m positioning to long EUR/USD and GBP/USD while shorting USD/JPY, as the higher-than-expected PPI weakens the US dollar. The market continues to price in potential Fed rate cuts, and there’s a growing likelihood of additional cuts later this year. That opens strategic trading windows across a range of currency pairs.

Retail sales and core retail sales are due tonight, and while expectations are modest, any surprises could further shift market sentiment. But for me, the key takeaway remains that inflation at the producer level is driving market moves and creating actionable trade setups.

For traders following USD pairs or gold, now is the time to stay alert. Watching these macroeconomic releases closely allows you to identify high-probability trades, adjust risk, and capitalise on volatility.

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Author

Luca is a seasoned Forex trader with a wealth of experience in the financial markets. Luca has a deep understanding of the economic data that drives the currency markets, and he uses this knowledge to inform his trading decisions. With a background in hedge fund management, Luca brings a unique perspective to the Forex markets, as he is well-versed in the tools and techniques used by professional traders and fund managers.

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