Central Bank Showdown: Fed, BoC, BoE & BoJ in Focus

I start the week watching a full economic calendar. On Tuesday, US retail sales are in focus — consensus points to a 0.4% m/m gain, slightly above July’s 0.3%, while nominal sales are expected to slip to 0.2% from 0.5%. That mix signals consumers are still spending despite softer wage growth.

Wednesday brings the UK CPI (seen steady at 2.8%), the Eurozone CPI (unchanged), and the Bank of Canada rate decision. Markets expect a 25bp cut to 2.5%, which should weigh on CAD.

The main event lands Thursday: the Fed rate decision. A 25bp cut is fully priced in, but the real market mover will be Powell’s press conference and updated guidance. Traders are already pricing another 50bp of cuts split between October and December. I’ll be watching for any shift in tone on inflation and growth.

Also Thursday, Australia posts employment change and unemployment (expected steady at 4.2%), followed by the Bank of England decision later in the day (no change expected).

Friday closes with the Bank of Japan, which is also set to hold steady.

It’s a heavy week of central bank action with plenty of volatility ahead. I’m positioning with caution, ready to react to surprises in the Fed’s messaging and jobs data out of Australia.

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