USDJPY Breakout: Why the Dollar Is Surging Over the Yen

Jasper Osita - Market Analyst

2025-10-08 14:24:32

  • USD/JPY reclaims momentum, breaking above the 150 handle as the dollar gains traction amid persistent yield divergence.
  • Japan’s pro-stimulus tone and BOJ’s ultra-loose stance continue to weigh on the yen, offsetting sporadic intervention threats.
  • Technical bias remains bullish, with structure favoring 154.80 and 158.87 as upside draw-on-liquidity targets while the 150.47–151.73 zone acts as critical support.

Dollar Strength Reasserted Against the Yen

After weeks of choppy range-bound action, the U.S. dollar has regained control against the Japanese yen. The pair surged past 151 to trade above 152, driven by monetary policy divergence and investor preference for yield-bearing assets.

While markets have priced in the possibility of future Fed rate cuts, U.S. yields remain significantly higher than Japan’s - keeping the greenback attractive for carry traders. The Federal Reserve’s cautious-dovish tone contrasts sharply with the Bank of Japan’s prolonged ultra-accommodation, widening the policy gap that fuels dollar demand.

BOJ Dovishness and Political Tailwinds Weigh on Yen

The yen’s weakness has deepened following Sanae Takaichi’s victory as LDP leader, a development seen by investors as a signal for more fiscal stimulus and continuity of pro-growth, low-rate policies. This narrative reinforced bets that the BOJ won’t rush into aggressive rate hikes, despite rising domestic inflation and mounting external pressure.

Recent comments from Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki warning against “excessive volatility” had limited market impact. Traders interpret these remarks as verbal intervention rather than imminent action. Unless the yen collapses beyond control, direct intervention appears unlikely.

Meanwhile, the U.S. government shutdown uncertainty has ironically supported the dollar, with global investors seeking refuge in U.S. assets as a short-term safe haven - further strengthening USD/JPY momentum.

Technical Outlook

USD/JPY has broken above a two-month consolidation, reclaiming the D1 Fair Value Gap (150.47–151.73) and extending beyond 152. This FVG now serves as critical re-entry support, confirming that institutional order flow remains bullish.

The next liquidity zones are positioned at 154.80 and 158.87, representing unmitigated imbalances and prior swing highs that may act as magnets if momentum persists.

Bullish Scenario: Reclaim and Continuation

USD/JPY could retest the 150.47–151.73 Fair Value Gap before continuing its upward trajectory. A clean rejection or bullish response from this zone would confirm re-accumulation and sustain the higher-timeframe bullish delivery.

Triggers:

  • Strong reaction from 150.5–151.0 zone
  • Daily close above 151.7 confirms continuation
  • Rising yield differential or hawkish U.S. data

Targets:

  • 154.80 – Previous liquidity zone
  • 158.87 – External swing high and draw on liquidity

Invalidation: Daily close below 150.40

Bearish Scenario: Failed FVG Hold and Re-Entry into Range

If price fails to hold above 150.4, USD/JPY could re-enter the old range, signaling distribution at premium levels. This would open a short-term corrective phase toward discounted liquidity zones near 149.20–147.80.

Triggers:

  • Rejection from 152.3–152.7 zone
  • Daily close below 150.4
  • Verbal intervention or soft U.S. data

Targets:

  • 149.20 – Prior consolidation support
  • 147.80 – Discounted liquidity

Invalidation: Break and close above 152.80

Conclusion

USD/JPY remains technically and fundamentally bullish. The breakout above 150 reflects not just momentum but conviction - anchored by yield divergence and Japan’s continued policy restraint. Unless the BOJ surprises with tightening or U.S. yields collapse, dollar-yen could maintain its upward bias toward 154.80 and 158.87 in the weeks ahead.

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Tác giả

Jasper has been in the markets since 2019 trading currencies, indices and commodities like Gold. His approach in the market is heavily accompanied by technical analysis and of course, supported by fundamentals. He has a background in trading proprietary firms and has been teaching students how to navigate themselves in the markets from basic to advance concepts.

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