NFP Cancelled! Government Shutdown Freezes Data.

Jasper Osita - Market Analyst

2025-10-07 12:53:41

  • US Dollar steadies amid a historic data blackout, with NFP officially postponed to November 7 due to the government shutdown.
  • Markets now trade on secondary indicators, as ISM data and yields become the only pulse for the economy.
  • Technically, DXY defends its H4 Fair Value Gap at 97.85–98.20, but momentum stalls below resistance at 98.83.

US Dollar Narrative: Trading Blind Without the NFP

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has entered an unprecedented period of uncertainty as the Bureau of Labor Statistics confirmed that the September Non-Farm Payrolls report has been postponed to November 7, assuming the government reopens by then.

This decision marks one of the longest data blackouts in recent years, depriving the market of a core input for Fed policy expectations and macro modeling. The Federal Reserve, which relies heavily on labor market data for rate guidance, is now “flying blind” - forcing both policymakers and traders to interpret the economy through less reliable proxies like ISM surveys and private payrolls.

Despite this, the dollar has remained relatively stable, largely supported by its safe-haven status and the lack of compelling alternatives. When markets lack visibility, liquidity gravitates to USD - not out of optimism, but as a defensive reflex.

Shutdown Fallout: Data Delays and Market Implications

With NFP delayed to November 7, the entire macro schedule is being reshuffled.

Here’s what that means for the weeks ahead:

  • No official labor data (NFP, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings) until Nov 7, assuming BLS resumes operations.
  • Inflation data (CPI, PPI) may face similar delays if the shutdown persists.
  • Fed policy: Without new data, the FOMC is likely to pause decision-making, relying instead on high-frequency indicators and market-based inflation expectations.
  • Market behavior: Expect lower conviction, higher intraday volatility, and range-bound action until real data returns.

In short, the U.S. economy hasn’t gone silent - the data stream has.

Technical Outlook (DXY H4)

Range Control Between FVG Support and Resistance Cap

On the 4-hour chart, DXY is trading at 98.16, hovering just above its H4 Fair Value Gap (97.85–98.20) after reclaiming it late last week. This zone now acts as near-term support.

Above, the resistance ceiling sits at 98.83, where prior imbalances converge with supply pressure. Price is consolidating between these two structures, signaling a compression phase before a volatility expansion - which may only materialize once the NFP data returns in November.

Bullish Scenario: Holding the FVG for a Push Toward 99.50

  • Price sustains above 98.20 and forms a clean break through 98.83.
  • Shutdown prolongs → data blackout persists → safe-haven USD demand intensifies.
  • Market reprices uncertainty into yield differentials, lifting DXY toward 99.20–99.50.

Targets: 99.20 / 99.50

Invalidation: Close below 97.80.

Bearish Scenario: Failed FVG and Break Below 97.80

  • A breakdown through 97.80 reopens liquidity toward 97.20–96.80.
  • A shutdown resolution paired with revived data flow could revive risk appetite, leading to USD outflows.
  • If NFP and CPI both return strong next month, a post-blackout rally could follow-but near term, weakness dominates below the gap.

Targets: 97.20 / 96.80

Invalidation: Sustained 4H close above 98.83.

NFP Now Rescheduled for November 7: What to Expect

The new release date sets the stage for a volatile restart of macro trading:

  • Backlog of two months’ data will be condensed into a single, highly scrutinized report.
  • A weak print (<75K) would reinforce dovish bets and could drag the dollar sharply lower.
  • Conversely, a strong rebound (>150K) may shock short positions and reignite hawkish pricing.
  • Either way, volatility will be magnified after a month-long silence.

Until then, the USD narrative will be technical, not fundamental - with liquidity hunts, range traps, and sentiment pivots leading price action.

Summary

The U.S. Dollar remains in limbo - technically contained, fundamentally data-starved.

As the government shutdown drags on, DXY’s next big move will likely hinge on the return of the NFP in November, not October. For now, traders should focus on range dynamics and stay alert to headline-driven volatility spikes.

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Tác giả

Jasper has been in the markets since 2019 trading currencies, indices and commodities like Gold. His approach in the market is heavily accompanied by technical analysis and of course, supported by fundamentals. He has a background in trading proprietary firms and has been teaching students how to navigate themselves in the markets from basic to advance concepts.

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