Nasdaq Rebounds After 23,000 Sweep: Breakout or Rejection Ahead?

Jasper Osita - Market Analyst

2025-09-04 12:53:43

The Nasdaq 100 reversed from its 23,000 sweep after ISM and JOLTs data. Now testing the 23,500 FVG, will it break higher toward 23,800 or face rejection?

  • ISM and JOLTs data first fueled weakness, then relief, pushing the Nasdaq 100 into a liquidity sweep at 23,000.
  • Alphabet’s antitrust win reignited tech momentum, helping the index reverse sharply and reclaim 23,450.
  • Technical forecast: Nasdaq 100 now tests the 23,500 H4 FVG — breakout targets 23,800+, rejection risks a return to 23,300 or lower.

NASDAQ: From Weakness to Relief

ISM Miss Sparks the Bearish Leg

The move began on September 2, when the ISM Manufacturing PMI printed at 48.7 vs 49 forecast, confirming ongoing contraction in the U.S. factory sector. This raised fresh concerns about economic momentum and pushed equities lower, particularly high-valuation growth stocks in the Nasdaq.

JOLTs Data Fuels Fed Rate-Cut Bets

A day later, the JOLTs Job Openings report showed a sharper-than-expected decline to 7.18M. While this initially reinforced the slowdown narrative, traders quickly reframed it as bullish for equities. A cooling labor market increases the probability of a September Federal Reserve rate cut, shifting sentiment from caution to opportunity.

Alphabet Antitrust Win Provides Relief Rally

The turning point came on September 3 when Alphabet secured a favorable antitrust ruling. Avoiding a breakup of its Chrome business, Alphabet surged nearly 8%, and Apple followed higher on confidence their partnership remained intact. This legal relief removed a major overhang on the Magnificent Seven and sparked a tech-led rebound, aligning with the bullish reversal scenario.

Nasdaq 100 Before vs After

The Forecast (Before)

In the earlier outlook, Nasdaq 100 was positioned inside a corrective range with two clear paths:

  1. Bearish Path – Rejection from the Fair Value Gap (FVG) could push price into 23,317 and sweep lower liquidity.
  2. Bullish Path – After liquidity was cleared around 23,317, the index could base out and flip structure higher toward 23,500+.

The roadmap anticipated a bearish sweep first, followed by the potential for a bullish reversal if liquidity was absorbed.

The Result (After)

That sequence played out cleanly:

  • Nasdaq rejected the FVG, extending lower into the 23,080–23,100 zone near the August 26 swing low.
  • Liquidity was swept at 23k, triggering a sharp rebound as structure flipped bullish.
  • The index reclaimed 23,450, aligning with the reversal scenario outlined in the forecast.

Technical Outlook: Sweep of 23,000 and Reversal

The Nasdaq 100 has swept the 23,000 liquidity low, flushing out sell-side positions and confirming the August 26 swing low as a defended zone. This sweep was decisive: after clearing that level, price rejected strongly, printing impulsive bullish candles back into the mid-range.

This move marks a classic liquidity grab → displacement → reversal structure, with buyers stepping back in after stop runs were completed.

Impact of ISM and JOLTs on the Move

The ISM Manufacturing PMI miss (48.7 vs 49) was the first driver of the bearish extension. It triggered the risk-off flows that helped Nasdaq pierce through support zones and eventually sweep the 23,000 level.

Following that, the JOLTs Job Openings decline (7.18M vs 7.4M forecast) shifted the narrative. While the headline was weak, markets interpreted it as dovish for Fed policy, increasing September rate cut bets. That change in perception provided the macro tailwind for Nasdaq’s sharp reversal right after the sweep.

Bullish Sequence in Current Price Action

Post-sweep, Nasdaq has been climbing back and is now trading near 23,450, reclaiming lost ground. Two technical elements support the bullish view:

  • Reclaim of H4 Fair Value Gaps (23,280–23,330): These inefficiencies acted as the base for the rebound and are now potential demand zones.
  • Approach toward Bearish H4 FVG (23,500–23,550): This area is the immediate resistance. A clean break above would confirm bullish continuation.

Bullish Scenario: Break and Hold Above Bearish H4 FVG

If Nasdaq manages to clear and hold above the 23,500–23,550 H4 FVG, it confirms that buyers are firmly in control. This would validate the reversal as more than just a corrective bounce.

  • Trigger: Clean breakout and acceptance above 23,550.
  • Structure: Consolidation inside the H4 FVG followed by a strong push higher.
  • Targets:
    • 23,650 (short-term imbalance fill)
    • 23,800–23,850 (upper resistance and prior highs).
  • Invalidation: A failure to hold above 23,280 (support zone) would weaken this setup.

Bearish Scenario: Rejection From Bearish H4 FVG

If sellers defend the 23,500–23,550 zone, Nasdaq could fail to build momentum and turn lower. This scenario reflects distribution at premium pricing after the liquidity sweep.

  • Trigger: Strong rejection inside the H4 FVG with a shift back below 23,450.
  • Structure: Rejection → lower highs → breakdown through reclaimed support.
  • Targets:
    • 23,300–23,320 (mid-level pullback to demand zone).
    • 23,080–23,100 (retest of the August 26 swing low).
    • 23,000 sweep low could be revisited if selling accelerates.
  • Invalidation: A daily close above 23,550 negates the bearish scenario and confirms upside continuation.

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Tác giả

Jasper has been in the markets since 2019 trading currencies, indices and commodities like Gold. His approach in the market is heavily accompanied by technical analysis and of course, supported by fundamentals. He has a background in trading proprietary firms and has been teaching students how to navigate themselves in the markets from basic to advance concepts.

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