Market Recap: Dollar Surges, USD/CAD & USD/JPY Hit Highs, Nasdaq, Dow, & S&P Declines on Fed Pause

The dollar has decisively broken above the 100 level, extending its bullish run after the Federal Reserve’s rate pause provided the catalyst traders were waiting for. USD/JPY and USD/CAD traded cleanly off their 4-hour fair value gaps (FVGs), while EUR/USD and GBP/USD continued to come under pressure. Meanwhile, US30, NAS100, and S&P 500 all peaked before experiencing sharp declines at the New York open on Thursday. With momentum now building, the bullish dollar narrative remains firmly intact.

Fed Rate Decision and Market Implications

The Fed’s decision to pause rates is the catalyst the market was waiting for. While the move had been priced in, it underscores the potential for future rate cuts without undermining the dollar’s strength. This balance has fueled the latest surge and is expected to keep upward pressure intact over the coming sessions.

USD/JPY and USD/CAD Setups

Both USD/JPY and USD/CAD have traded beautifully, respecting the 4-hour fair value gaps (FVGs) highlighted since the start of the week. These higher-timeframe levels have acted as clean reaction points for the ongoing bullish moves.

Two clear multi-timeframe setups stood out:

Retracements into the 4-hour FVG with confirmation triggers on the 15-minute chart

Breakouts from 4-hour consolidations with micro breakouts confirmed on the 15-minute timeframe

Other Majors and Indices

EUR/USD and GBP/USD have continued to soften against the dollar’s strength, remaining heavy as the greenback surges. In the equity space, US30, NAS100, and S&P 500 peaked earlier in the week before suffering sharp declines at the New York open on Thursday, a move that reinforces the shift back into dollar strength and risk-off positioning.

Summary and Broader Outlook

The dollar’s surge above 100 is confirmation that the bullish narrative remains in full control. With the Fed rate decision behind us and risk assets rolling over, the momentum could continue as USD/JPY and USD/CAD hold their key structural levels.

What We Covered in This Session:

• Dollar surging above the 100 level following the Fed pause
• USD/JPY and USD/CAD cleanly respecting 4-hour fair value gaps
• EUR/USD and GBP/USD remaining heavy under dollar strength
• US30, NAS100, and S&P 500 peaking before sharp Thursday declines
• Executing retracement trades with 15-minute confirmations
• Capturing breakouts from 4-hour consolidation with micro entries
• Why the bullish dollar trend remains the dominant narrative