Gold Forecast: Structural Support After Bearish Move - Is $3,360 Breakout Ahead?

Jasper Osita - Market Analyst

2025-07-08 14:29:59

Gold respects the $3,300 Fair Value Gap, signaling a possible bullish recovery if $3,360 gives way.
Supplementary Headline: Previous bearish play unfolds as expected, but failure to break key support suggests sellers may be exhausted.
Technical Forecast: Neutral bias with bullish potential above $3,315; bearish risk resumes if $3,300 fails.

Narrative: Bearish Breakdown Played Out, But Bulls Defend $3,300

In our July 4 analysis - Gold Price Forecast: Bullish Scenario Begins to Materialize as Forecasts Rise and Geopolitical Risks Simmer & EUR/USD, Gold, Nasdaq, Bitcoin & More, Breakout Trading Setups - Weekly Forex & Market Breakdown - we outlined a potential bearish scenario developing around the $3,360–$3,370 premium distribution zone. The market played this scenario out perfectly—failing to sustain above the highs, breaking structure, and tapping into lower Fair Value Gaps.

However, while the initial sell-off confirmed our short-term bearish expectations, price action since then has not triggered a full reversal. Instead, gold has found support at a newly formed 4H Bullish Fair Value Gap around $3,300–$3,315, leaving the door open for bullish reaccumulation if key levels flip.

Key Fundamental Developments

Tariff Delays Reduce Safe-Haven Urgency

The postponement of U.S. tariff implementation has calmed market fears, weakening immediate safe-haven demand for gold.

Central Bank Demand and De-Dollarization Persist

Despite the pullback, central banks remain steady buyers. The underlying bid from sovereign accumulation continues to support gold’s macro uptrend.

Fed Stays Neutral

Recent Fed speeches point to a patient stance on rates, which has reduced volatility but may still tilt gold bullish if inflation surprises to the upside.

Technical Outlook

Gold is now caught between two zones:

Bearish Fair Value Gap Resistance at $3,330–$3,345
Bullish Fair Value Gap Support at $3,315–$3,330

This defines a tactical consolidation, where price must break either boundary to define the next directional leg.

Bullish Scenario: Support Holds and $3,360 Breaks

Gold is currently testing off the 4H Bullish FVG at $3,315–$3,330, a potential bounce level. If we see bullish follow-through and break above the key $3,345–$3,360, we could see a new leg higher toward:

$3,370 – previous range high
$3,400–$3,420 – expansion targets if FVGs form and hold on lower timeframes

Bearish Scenario: Rejection and Structure Shift Below $3,300

If price fails to reclaim the bearish FVG at $3,330–$3,345, and sellers step in again with another lower high, a break below $3,300 would confirm bearish continuation, targeting:

$3,270 – next liquidity pool
$3,250–$3,240 – deeper imbalance fill and trendline liquidity

Key Levels to Watch

Zone	Price Range	Market Implication	Bias
Bullish Breakout	$3,345–$3,360	Clean break and close above confirms bullish continuation	Bullish
Compression Zone	$3,315–$3,330	Bullish FVG zone; active battleground between buyers/sellers	Neutral / Pivotal
Support Floor	$3,300	Loss of this level opens bearish momentum toward liquidity	Bearish Below
Downside Targets	$3,270 / $3,250	Break of $3,300 could target these liquidity and imbalance zones	Bearish Target
Liquidity Magnet	$3,370	Previous high; likely area of buy-side liquidity sweep

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This content may have been written by a third party. ACY makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplies by any third-party. This content is information only, and does not constitute financial, investment or other advice on which you can rely.

Yazar

Jasper has been in the markets since 2019 trading currencies, indices and commodities like Gold. His approach in the market is heavily accompanied by technical analysis and of course, supported by fundamentals. He has a background in trading proprietary firms and has been teaching students how to navigate themselves in the markets from basic to advance concepts.

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Gold Forecast: Structural Support After Bearish Move - Is $3,360 Breakout Ahead?

Narrative: Bearish Breakdown Played Out, But Bulls Defend $3,300

Key Fundamental Developments

Tariff Delays Reduce Safe-Haven Urgency

Central Bank Demand and De-Dollarization Persist

Fed Stays Neutral

Technical Outlook

Bullish Scenario: Support Holds and $3,360 Breaks

Bearish Scenario: Rejection and Structure Shift Below $3,300

Key Levels to Watch

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