เว็บเทรดเดอร์

XAUUSD Forecast: Gold Bulls Eye All-Time Highs

Jasper Osita - Market Analyst

2025-12-02 11:47:39

Gold pulls back from $4,245 but remains structurally bullish, with buyers preparing for another potential run at the all-time high.
Despite the short-term dip, macro and technical factors continue to show remarkable underlying strength in gold.
Price is retracing into the $4,160–$4,120 demand zone, where a higher low could form before another attempt at $4,381.

Gold Market Overview

Gold continues to show impressive resilience even after failing to secure a breakout above the $4,245 premium zone. The pullback is controlled, orderly, and characteristic of a market rotating back into discount levels before attempting another upside leg.

This is not distribution, nor is it trend exhaustion. Instead, gold is rebalancing its structure—sweeping liquidity, returning to demand, and searching for institutional footprints before initiating its next leg. Traders anticipating a deeper collapse may underestimate how well-supported gold remains on higher timeframes.

Why Gold Strength Is Still Dominating the Market

Even with the short-term rejection, the strength behind gold’s broader trend is undeniable. Several market forces continue to reinforce gold’s bullish structure, making the current pullback look more like a reload than a reversal.

1. Persistent Global Uncertainty

Geopolitical tensions remain elevated, and risk-off flows continue to find their way into gold. The Middle East remains a live catalyst, and ongoing global flashpoints ensure gold retains its defensive appeal.

2. Central Bank Accumulation

Sovereign demand for physical gold remains strong. Multiple central banks—especially from emerging markets—continue to accumulate reserves at an elevated pace. This is not speculative buying; it is long-term strategic positioning that provides solid structural support.

3. Policy Easing Expectations

Even with short-term yield fluctuations, the broader trend leans toward eventual monetary easing. A shift toward a less restrictive environment typically weakens real yields and supports gold’s upside.

4. Inflation Has Normalized but Not Vanished

Inflation has cooled, but it has not returned sustainably to central bank targets. This “sticky” inflation environment reinforces gold’s role as a medium-term hedge.

5. Markets Are Rethinking Risk Premiums

Equity volatility remains sensitive, global liquidity is tightening unevenly, and portfolio managers remain cautious. This keeps gold relevant as a stabilizer across multi-asset portfolios.

All of these drivers underscore one key point:

Gold’s macro foundation for bullish continuation is still intact—and very strong.

News & Drivers Affecting XAUUSD in the Past 7 Days

Recent developments shaping gold’s behavior:

US Dollar Stabilization

DXY’s recent consolidation has temporarily slowed gold’s momentum, but without a sustained breakout in the dollar, gold remains positioned to reclaim strength.

Yields Near Short-Term Peaks

US yields saw a modest uptick, contributing to gold’s rejection from $4,245. Yet without structural yield strength, this impact is likely temporary.

Lower Liquidity Conditions

Holiday-related thin trading amplified intraday volatility, leading to sharp wicks and short-term rejections. These conditions often exaggerate pullbacks without changing the broader trend.

Together, these developments help explain the recent dip—but none of them point to a narrative shift against gold.

Technical Outlook

Gold is executing a classic, healthy retracement after rejecting the $4,245 premium. The structure aligns with a technical rebalancing into discount pricing.

Key elements from the current setup:

Rejection at premium pricing
Ongoing corrective cycle
FVG and order block convergence at $4,160–$4,120
Fibonacci alignment between 0.618–0.79
Room for a higher low before continuation
All-time high at $4,381 remains the next major liquidity target

Bullish Scenario: Demand Zone Holds and Gold Pushes to the All-Time High

If gold reacts cleanly at the demand zone:

The $4,160–$4,120 order block becomes the primary decision point.
A displacement or break-of-structure would confirm renewed bullish intent.
A successful reclaim of $4,245 opens the path toward the all-time high at $4,381.
Upside targets:
- $4,310
- $4,340
- $4,381 (ATH retest)
- Extended: $4,420 if momentum accelerates

This remains the preferred scenario given the broader macro backdrop.

Bearish Scenario: Order Block Fails and Retracement Deepens

If price breaks below the $4,120 structure:

Gold could sweep into the $4,080–$4,030 imbalance.
A structural break below $4,030 would invite a deeper correction.
Downside extension targets sit at $3,980 and below.

This scenario requires clear bearish confirmation—it is not yet the dominant expectation.

Final Thoughts

Gold remains one of the strongest assets in global markets. The recent dip does not undermine the bullish macro or structural narrative. Instead, it positions gold to form a higher low before making another attempt at the all-time high.

With the $4,160–$4,120 zone now in focus, traders should monitor how price behaves there. A strong reaction could be the catalyst that sends gold back toward $4,381—and potentially beyond.

Start Trading Live!

Trade forex, indices, gold, and more
Access ACY, MT4, MT5, & Copy Trading Platforms

It’s time to go from theory to execution!

Create an Account. Start Your Live Trading Now!

Check Out My Contents:

Beginners Path

Strategies That You Can Use

Looking for step-by-step approaches you can plug straight into the charts? Start here:

Indicators / Tools for Trading

Sharpen your edge with proven tools and frameworks:

How To Trade News

News moves markets fast. Learn how to keep pace with SMC-based playbooks:

Learn How to Trade US Indices

From NASDAQ opens to DAX trends, here’s how to approach indices like a pro:

How to Start Trading Gold

Gold remains one of the most traded assets - here’s how to approach it with confidence:

How to Trade Japanese Candlesticks

Candlesticks are the building blocks of price action. Master the most powerful ones:

How to Start Day Trading

Ready to go intraday? Here’s how to build consistency step by step:

Swing Trading 101

Learn how to navigate yourself in times of turmoil

Markets swing between calm and chaos. Learn to read risk-on vs risk-off like a pro:

Want to learn how to trade like the Smart Money?

Step inside the playbook of institutional traders with SMC concepts explained:

Master the World’s Most Popular Forex Pairs

Forex pairs aren’t created equal - some are stable, some are volatile, others tied to commodities or sessions.

Metals Trading

Stop Hunting 101

If you’ve ever been stopped out right before the market reverses - this is why:

Trading Psychology

Mindset is the deciding factor between growth and blowups. Explore these essentials:

Market Drivers

Risk Management

The real edge in trading isn’t strategy - it’s how you protect your capital:

Suggested Learning Path

If you’re not sure where to start, follow this roadmap:

Start with Trading Psychology → Build the mindset first.
Move into Risk Management → Learn how to protect capital.
Explore Strategies & Tools → Candlesticks, Fibonacci, MAs, Indicators.
Apply to Assets → Gold, Indices, Forex sessions.
Advance to Smart Money Concepts (SMC) → Learn how institutions trade.
Specialize → Stop Hunts, News Trading, Turmoil Navigation.

This way, you’ll grow from foundation → application → mastery, instead of jumping around randomly.

Follow me for more daily market insights!

Jasper Osita - LinkedIn - FXStreet - YouTube

This content may have been written by a third party. ACY makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplies by any third-party. This content is information only, and does not constitute financial, investment or other advice on which you can rely.

ผู้เขียน

Jasper has been in the markets since 2019 trading currencies, indices and commodities like Gold. His approach in the market is heavily accompanied by technical analysis and of course, supported by fundamentals. He has a background in trading proprietary firms and has been teaching students how to navigate themselves in the markets from basic to advance concepts.

Try These Next

4 Powerful Tactics to Overcome the Most Costly Forex Mistakes

How to Master MT4 & MT5 - Tips and Tricks for Traders

The Importance of Fundamental Analysis in Forex Trading

Forex Leverage Explained: Mastering Forex Leverage in Trading & Controlling Margin

The Importance of Liquidity in Forex: A Beginner's Guide

Close All Metatrader Script: Maximise Your Trading Efficiency and Reduce Stress

Best Currency Pairs To Trade in 2025

Forex Trading Hours: Finding the Best Times to Trade FX

MetaTrader Expert Advisor - The Benefits of Algorithmic Trading and Forex EAs

Top 5 Candlestick Trading Formations Every Trader Must Know

ราคาเป็นตัวบ่งชี้เท่านั้น

Australia1300 729 171

International+61 2 9188 2999

Emailsupport@acy.com

Socceroos Legend & ACY Securities Global Brand Ambassador

Order Processing Speed of within 30ms* - The order processing speed of 30ms referred in this website is based on ACY Securities' trading server to our liquidity providers.

RISK WARNING: Foreign exchange and derivatives trading carries significant risk and is not suitable for all investors. You do not own, or have any interest in, the underlying assets. Before you decide to trade foreign exchange and derivatives, we encourage you to consider your investment objectives, your risk tolerance and trading experience. ACY Capital LLC (Company number: 2610 LLC 2022) provides general advice that does not consider your objectives, financial situation or needs. The content of this website must not be construed as personal advice; please seek advice from an independent financial or tax advisor if you have any questions. The KIS and Terms are available upon request or registration. If there is any advice on this site, it is general advice only.

ACY Capital LLC ('ACY LLC') is incorporated in St Vincent and the Grenadines (Company number: 2610 LLC 2022). Registered address: Suite 305, Griffith Corporate Centre, Beachmont, Kingstown.

ACY Securities SA Pty Ltd (Reg.: 2009/008731/07) is regulated by the Financial Sector Conduct Authority (FSCA: 51008). Registered address: 4 Stan Road, Sandton, Johannesburg, Gauteng, 2196. FSCA authorised us to provide financial services in terms of section 8 of the Financial Advisory and Intermediary Services.

For Jordanian clients, Al Bilad Securities and Investment Company (Registration No. 397, Institution No. 200027569), located at Building 11, Paris Street, Al Swifeyeh, Amman, Jordan (Al Bilad), acts as the introducing broker for ACY Capital Australia LLC (Company Number: 2610 LLC 2022). Al Bilad is licensed by the Jordan Securities Commission to provide financial services by introducing Jordanian clients to foreign brokers, while ACY LLC remains the principal and issuer of its products.

0.0 พิปส์

แพร่กระจายจาก

1:500

เลเวอเรจ

ต่ำกว่า 30 มิลลิวินาที*

ประมวลคำสั่งซื้อขายความเร็วสูง

2,200+

ตราสารที่สามารถซื้อขายได้

มีการควบคุม

สำนักงานใหญ่ในซิดนีย์