Gold and Energy Markets Drop as Dollar Gains Strength: Is More Downside Ahead?

As the Dollar gains traction, key commodities like Gold, Gas, and Oil are facing downside pressure.

• Gold Breakdown: Gold has broken its recent range, returning to the 2864.98 - 2942.69 zone amid global uncertainty. Key levels to watch include 2929.94 for upside continuation and 2888.27 for a bearish breakdown.
• Gas Weakens: After attempting to fill the Daily Fair Value Gap, Gas failed to sustain its upside move. Ongoing US-Russia peace talks could lead to lifting sanctions, increasing competition in the Gas market.
• Oil Under Pressure: Oil continues to weaken as tariff concerns impact CAD, while GDP data later today could provide further direction.

The markets remain volatile, with geopolitical tensions and economic data playing a crucial role in the next moves for these commodities.

Gold Breakdown: A Shift in Sentiment?

Gold has taken a hit amid rising Dollar strength and global market uncertainty. After a period of bullish momentum, the yellow metal has broken below its range and is now testing lower support levels.

Daily & 1-Hour Analysis

In our previous analysis (read here), we highlighted Gold’s bullish outlook driven by geopolitical risks and Dollar weakness. However, yesterday’s broad market sell-off and renewed Dollar strength have sent Gold tumbling back into the $2,864.98 - $2,942.69 range.

This decline suggests increased uncertainty in global markets, which ironically should support Gold as a safe-haven asset. However, the Dollar’s traction and recent risk-off sentiment have shifted demand dynamics.

Key Technical Levels to Watch

🔹 Bullish Scenario: A break above $2,929.94 could signal a continuation to the upside.
🔹 Bearish Scenario: A breakdown below $2,888.27 may confirm a deeper bearish trend.

While the higher timeframes still suggest long-term upside potential, traders should be cautious as Gold approaches key support levels that, if broken, could accelerate further downside.

Additionally, ongoing Middle Eastern and European conflicts remain a wildcard, potentially driving Gold higher if tensions escalate.

GAS: Fails to Hold Upside Momentum

1-Hour Analysis

Natural Gas initially followed our mapped upside recovery by filling the Daily Fair Value Gap, but it failed to sustain momentum, leading to a renewed bearish trend.

US-Russia War Resolution: A Game Changer for Gas?

Recent US-Russian peace talks over Ukraine could have a negative impact on Gas prices. If the discussions lead to lifting sanctions on Russia, it would increase global Gas supply, driving prices lower.

In a recent statement, Trump hinted at potential diplomatic progress, saying:

“They were very good. Russia wants to do something.”

If these talks materialise, the global Gas market could face downward pressure due to increased competition from Russia.

Oil Weakens Amid Tariff Concerns

1-Hour Analysis

Oil remains under pressure as the Dollar strengthens, limiting the commodity’s upside potential.

For now, Crude is trading within a defined range, awaiting a major catalyst. Today’s GDP numbers could bring further clarity and determine the next directional move.

Final Thoughts: Dollar in Control?

The Dollar’s resurgence has shifted market dynamics across Gold, Gas, and Oil. While Gold still holds long-term bullish potential, short-term Dollar strength and global market uncertainty are weighing on its price.

With key economic data releases on the horizon and geopolitical tensions still in play.

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