EUR Strong Against the US Dollar - What are the Drivers Behind the Move to Break 108?

If you’ve been keeping up with the market, you’ll know that the euro is making waves. Yesterday, the euro surged past the 108 level, reaching above 109 before experiencing a slight retracement. Let’s dive into the data that explains why the euro is so strong against the US dollar.

Starting with the 6 p.m. services PMI for June in Europe, we saw a reading of 52.8, slightly higher than the expected 52.6, though lower than the previous 53.2. The S&P Global Composite PMI for June in Europe came in at 50.9, above the consensus of 50.8 but below the previous 52.2.

In the US, the data released after 10 p.m. painted a different picture. The ADP non-farm change for June was expected to be 163,000 but came in at 150,000, weakening the dollar. Initial jobless claims were 238,000, higher than the expected 234,000, indicating ongoing job losses.

Despite this, the US services PMI and S&P Global Composite PMI exceeded expectations, with services PMI at 55.3 and the composite PMI at 54.8. However, the ISM non-manufacturing PMI, non-manufacturing employment, and factory orders all fell short, with the ISM non-manufacturing PMI dropping significantly to 48.8 from the expected 52.6.

Tonight, I’ll be reviewing all this data in detail and uploading it to the chart. You’ll have the opportunity to ask any questions you like, and I’ll provide answers in a one-to-one format. Understanding the data alone isn’t enough; you need to put it in context to grasp the bigger picture and use it to inform your trading strategies.

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