2025-04-28 13:51:01
市场情绪严重受川普言论影响,他表示对中关税145%太高,最终会低于这个数字,并缓颊没有要解雇鲍威尔,这些言论让上周投资情绪大幅回暖,标普指数终于突破5500点,有机会进一步反弹到年线5650,全球股市下档空间有限,但中美对峙的不确定性仍高,短线以区间低买高卖来操作。欧洲和日本都已和美国进入谈判,但美欧谈判无实质进展,且欧盟对美国科技巨头处以反垄断罚款,更为谈判前景增添变数;日本则与美国谈判进入第二阶段,且双方表示不会对日元进行目标限制,可避免最坏情境。
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美国伊朗核谈若有进展恐放宽原油制裁、OPEC+可能在6月加速恢复增产,三大能源机构下调全球原油需求成长,需求跟不上增产的速度,因此上周油价收跌、趋势偏空,本周留意63.5、65重要阻力价,若出现止涨或有偏空机会。
尽管川普对中态度有所放松,但中美贸易谈判尚未取得实质进展,避险需求仍高,加上近期印度与巴基斯坦冲突加剧,不确定性增加,且各国央行及基金持续购金,亚洲买盘强劲,金价逢低寻找偏多机会。
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