USD/JPY Forecast: Dollar Yen Breaks Higher as Forecasted Key Levels to Watch

Jasper Osita - Market Analyst

2025-07-09 09:06:15

USD/JPY breaks past 146.80 as forecasted, validating the Fair Value Gap structure and liquidity sweep play.
Tariff-driven yen weakness and fragile Japanese data fuel continued upside pressure into key resistance.
The technical outlook favors bulls, with 147.00 and 148.00 in focus as long as price holds above 145.80 and FVG remains intact.

Yen Weakens on Renewed Tariff Pressure

**Forex, Indices, Gold Weekly Gameplan: Technical Analysis & Price Action Outlook**

USD/JPY traded sharply higher this week, fueled by renewed trade tensions and technical tailwinds. On July 7–8, the U.S. announced plans for 25% tariffs on Japanese and South Korean imports, set to take effect August 1. While not final, the announcement triggered an immediate market reaction.

The result? The Japanese yen slid to multi-week lows as USD/JPY surged toward 146.90, fueled by:

Tariff-induced yen weakness
Safe-haven support for the U.S. dollar
Technical reclaim of structure and bullish imbalance zones

Meanwhile, Japan's economic backdrop remains fragile. Q1 GDP showed contraction, real wages declined, and consumer sentiment weakened—all compounding yen softness and raising concerns ahead of Japan’s July 20 elections.

High-Impact News Driving USD/JPY

Date	Event	Market Reaction	USD/JPY Impact
July 7–8	Trump announces 25% tariffs on Japan/Korea	Risk-off spike	USD/JPY rallies past 147.50
July 8	PM Ishiba says Japan will continue trade talks	Eases panic slightly	Consolidation above 146.20
July 9	FOMC Minutes due	Market cautious	Could further fuel USD strength or cap gains

These developments amplify the macroeconomic narrative driving USD/JPY:

Weak yen fundamentals
Hawkish U.S. tone with risk-averse global positioning
Key resistance zones now under threat of breakout

Forecast vs. Actual – Bullish Scenario Played Out Perfectly

**Weekly Market Wrap: What Moved Forex, Gold & Indices**

In our prior analysis, we outlined a bullish Smart Money structure built around a 4-Hour Fair Value Gap Level resting between 143.934-144.608, a sweep of previous highs at 145.00, and a continuation rally past it.

Actual Market Reaction:

Price swept highs at 145.00 after bouncing off from the 4-Hour Fair Value Gap Level resting between 143.934-144.608
USD/JPY then surged beyond 146.80 as projected

This confirms the renewed strength of the U.S. dollar over the Yen’s dovish stance.

Technical Outlook

USD/JPY has reclaimed its bullish trajectory, now sitting near its highest level since early June.

Bullish Scenario – In Progress

A break and hold above 147.00 could open the path toward multi-month highs. We could see further upside as long as:

The 4-Hour Fair Value Gap between 146.280-146.631 remains intact
Price does not close below the immediate low at the 145.80 level
The Fed’s tone remains hawkish

Targets:

147.00 - Next Psych Level
148.00 - June High

Bearish Scenario

As the rally looks over-extended and over-stretched, this could pose a risk for downside as profit-taking takes place. We could see signs of weakness if:

The 4-Hour Fair Value Gap between 146.280-146.631 gets closed down
Failure to remain and break the 145.80 level
A dovish Fed + July election sentiment

The USD/JPY rally played out almost identically to the forecasted Smart Money setup, reclaiming the Fair Value Gap, executing a sweep, and continuing higher.

With U.S. tariff risk pressuring Japan and institutional bullish structure now active, the path of least resistance leans toward a breakout. But traders should stay alert for event-driven volatility around FOMC and Japanese elections in the coming days.

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This content may have been written by a third party. ACY makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplies by any third-party. This content is information only, and does not constitute financial, investment or other advice on which you can rely.

작성자

Jasper has been in the markets since 2019 trading currencies, indices and commodities like Gold. His approach in the market is heavily accompanied by technical analysis and of course, supported by fundamentals. He has a background in trading proprietary firms and has been teaching students how to navigate themselves in the markets from basic to advance concepts.

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USD/JPY Forecast: Dollar Yen Breaks Higher as Forecasted Key Levels to Watch

Yen Weakens on Renewed Tariff Pressure

High-Impact News Driving USD/JPY

Forecast vs. Actual – Bullish Scenario Played Out Perfectly

Technical Outlook

Bullish Scenario – In Progress

Bearish Scenario

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