2025-03-03 14:18:35
Overview
Key Market Themes
The US Dollar exhibited a strong recovery after weeks of weakness, closing near the 50% mark of its monthly range. Key geopolitical events, including US-Ukraine negotiations, European support for Ukraine, and shifting trade policies, have played a crucial role in influencing market sentiment. This week, traders will closely monitor key economic data, including PMI and NFP, as potential catalysts for further Dollar strength.
Despite experiencing consistent weakness for over 80% of the month, the U.S. Dollar staged a strong comeback, recovering more than 10% in the last three days. It closed near the 50% level of the monthly trading range, signaling resilience despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and volatile U.S. political activities.
Key support levels of 106.663 - 107.348 (previous resistance turned support) have held firm, indicating that the Dollar remains a strong contender in global markets.
The Dollar’s three-day winning streak suggests growing bullish momentum. With U.S. tariffs still in play, we anticipate continued strength in the Greenback as economic stimulus from tariffs supports its valuation.
Tensions flared last week as Trump, Vance, and Zelenskiy met in the Oval Office on February 28. The talks ended without any deals, particularly concerning Ukraine’s minerals agreement, a key element in the U.S.'s strategy to end the ongoing conflict.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent criticised President Zelenskiy for jeopardising economic negotiations by attempting to renegotiate terms mid-meeting. This strain on U.S.-Ukraine relations has sparked concerns among U.S. politicians, with some suggesting new leadership in Ukraine may be necessary to move peace talks forward.
Daily
Following the failed U.S.-Ukraine negotiations, uncertainty in the European zone has further strengthened the Dollar. The Greenback recently broke above the key resistance level of 107.381, showing signs of continued upward momentum.
4-Hour
To confirm sustained strength, traders are watching for: ✅ A retracement to the Fair Value Gap (FVG) ✅ A bullish structure with higher highs and higher lows
Currently, the Dollar is pulling back, and traders are waiting for a reaction before entering long positions.
Daily
4-Hour
2. Bearish Scenario
This week’s main market movers include PMI numbers and the NFP report. If these reports beat forecasts, we could see further bullish momentum for the Dollar.
Daily
The Australian Dollar has suffered six consecutive days of losses, erasing nearly two weeks’ worth of gains. The sharp decline suggests that the Greenback’s dominance is weighing heavily on the Aussie.
Chinese Ships Seen Near Australian Waters
Adding to the pressure, Chinese naval activity near Australian waters has raised concerns, further weakening investor sentiment toward the AUD.
Tensions between China and Australia could spark a negative effect on the Australian Dollar as these poses risks and uncertainties.
1-Hour
With the Greenback on a pullback phase, but with a potential bullish reversal, we’d want the Australian Dollar, for short opportunity to react on the Daily Fair Value Gap and create a bearish reversal pattern with lower highs and lows.
RBA will be the main event this week for the Aussie.
Daily
The New Zealand Dollar has broken below key support levels and is now testing 0.55160, a critical support zone.
1-Hour
As of now, NZD is retracing to the upside, but its long-term outlook remains bearish.
Geopolitical Developments Favoring the Euro
European Leaders, Canada in London Summit “Securing Our Future”
Following the failed U.S.-Ukraine talks, European leaders, alongside Canada, held the “Securing Our Future” summit in London to reaffirm their support for Ukraine emphasising military aid and economic pressure on Russia. This political backing may help stabilise the Euro in the short term.
Daily
Technical Outlook:
4-Hour
For a bearish opportunity, we’d like to look for shorts at the 1.04411 - 1.04638 level.
Daily
Keir Starmer, Prime Minister of the United Kingdom said, “Not all the nations are willing to contribute but does not mean we don’t do anything. Europe must do the heavy lifting.”
As the US support for Ukraine are diminishing after the Trump-Zelenskiy discussion, Starmer, prime minister of UK, commits to support Ukraine with a £1.6 billion worth of air defense missiles.
Despite geopolitical tensions, European indices (STOXX & FTSE 100) are rising as Europe unites behind Ukraine.
FTSE 100: All-Time Highs
Daily
The Pound, despite geopolitical concerns, is still holding steady at the support level as the we had a lot of positive progression on the Europe side in terms of aiding Ukraine.
4-Hour
While the GBP/USD remains in a consolidation phase, it has avoided the severe weakness seen in other major currencies.
Key Catalysts for GBP:
Technical Outlook:
Daily
We are in an obvious trend after USD overcame CAD by breaking the 1.43791 level. We could see a further upside as the tariffs in Canada commences this week, March 4.
4-Hour
With the 4-Hour timeframe, we are not seeing any signs of reversal in favor of CAD.
Based on this trend, we’d like price to breakout of this range and continue to strengthen.
Daily
With the Swiss Dollar, we are still not breaking the 0.90544 level for a shift from bearish to bullish.
We are yet to see further strength with Dollar as the red folders are coming up this week.
✅ The Dollar closed near 50% of the monthly range, signaling strength. ✅ U.S.-Ukraine negotiations collapsed, adding to geopolitical uncertainty. ✅ Major market catalysts this week: PMI, NFP, and RBA decision. ✅ AUD, NZD, and EUR remain under pressure, while GBP is holding steady. ✅ Stock markets (FTSE & STOXX) continue to climb despite global tensions.
The U.S. Dollar’s recent recovery and geopolitical dominance have reinforced its strength across markets. This week’s key events, including the NFP report, will determine whether the Dollar can continue its rally or if it will face another round of selling pressure.
Trading Quote
"It’s not whether you’re right or wrong that’s important, but how much money you make when you’re right and how much you lose when you’re wrong." – George Soros
🎯 Actionable Approach:
✅ Set Clear Stop-Loss & Take-Profit – Define risk before entering a trade (e.g., 1:3 risk-reward ratio).
✅ Journal Every Trade – Track mistakes, improvements, and learn from past decisions.
✅ Detach Emotionally – Follow a system, not gut feelings. Losses are part of the game.
✅ Analyse Institutional Flow – Align trades with big money movements for higher probability setups.
✅ Stay Flexible & Adaptive – If market conditions shift, adjust your strategy, don’t force trades.
This content may have been written by a third party. ACY makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplies by any third-party. This content is information only, and does not constitute financial, investment or other advice on which you can rely.
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