Gold holding support, more upside ahead as NFP looms

• Gold holding above 3250 to 3300 support with upside potential toward 3400.
• Weaker NFP could trigger dollar weakness and fuel Gold rally.
• Key breakout above 3330 and Friday's NFP will be crucial for confirmation.

With Gold currently holding the line at the 3250 - 3300 level, we might see renewed strength for upside on Gold. All eyes are now on this Friday’s U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, which could inject fresh volatility into Gold.

Key red folders for USD this week

A weaker-than-expected NFP could pressure the U.S. dollar and send Gold soaring. Conversely, a hot jobs print may delay rate cuts, capping Gold’s upside. Markets are still pricing in possible Fed easing later this year—any NFP weakness would reinforce that narrative, supporting bullion.

Technical outlook

Daily

As long as the Daily Fair Value Gap holds resting at 3250 - 3285 level, we might see Gold to have the potential to seek upside liquidity above the next high situated at t 3370 level. The sweep below the Daily range also tells us that orders below that range have been taken out. If this is confirmed sweep of liquidity, we don't we price to go under the last candle where the sweep was created and we'd want to see momentum to the upside for potential new highs. NFP print could further add volatility on Gold this coming Friday.

4-Hour

Looking at the 4-Hour timeframe, Gold is still on a range-bound motion. The good thing about this range is its hovering above the 50% level or above equilibrium of the range signifying strength on a premium level. For further upside, we'd like to see a breakout of the 3330 level and a sustained move above it.

Bearish Dollar Could support Gold for upside

Dollar is still experiencing headwinds as it hovers near the immediate support level resting at 99.129 level. If we'd like to see more upside on Gold, we'd want a break on the Dollar, and ultimately, reaching the 2025 All-Time Lows at 97.921 level. Summary of key factors to watch

• Support holding: The 3250–3300 zone remains a strong demand area, where buyers have repeatedly stepped in.
• Dollar sensitivity: A weaker-than-expected NFP could pressure the U.S. dollar and send Gold soaring. Conversely, a hot jobs print may delay rate cuts, capping Gold’s upside.
• NFP to rate expectations: Markets are still pricing in possible Fed easing later this year—any NFP weakness would reinforce that narrative, supporting bullion.

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