The Cost of Protectionism: How Tariffs Are Weighing Down the U.S. Market

Overview

The latest U.S. tariffs have intensified market volatility, weakening equities, driving inflation concerns, and disrupting supply chains. In response, China and Canada have imposed retaliatory tariffs, further pressuring U.S. industries. This trade uncertainty has weighed heavily on investor sentiment, leading to a sharp decline in major stock indices.

• Investor Sentiment & Safe-Haven Moves: The U.S. 10-year bond is gaining traction, the VIX fear index has spiked above 25, and risk-off sentiment dominates.
• Stock Market Reaction: The Nasdaq plunged 13%, the Dow is testing critical support, and the S&P 500 continues its downward trend.
• Federal Reserve Stance: While Jerome Powell remains cautiously optimistic, the Fed is closely monitoring economic risks before making further policy decisions.

The latest round of U.S. tariffs has sent shockwaves through financial markets, fueling investor concerns and intensifying downside risks. As tensions escalate with Canada and China imposing retaliatory measures, equities remain volatile, and safe-haven assets are gaining traction. Here’s a closer look at the current market landscape.

Federal Reserve Optimistic but Vigilant

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell recently addressed the economic outlook, emphasizing a cautious approach to monetary policy amid ongoing uncertainties. He highlighted that while the U.S. economy continues to be in a favorable position, with a solid labor market and inflation moving closer to the 2% target, the Federal Reserve remains vigilant in monitoring various economic indicators before making further policy decisions.

Flight to Safety: U.S. Bonds Gain Momentum

With growing uncertainty and risk-off sentiment dominating the U.S. markets, investors are shifting towards safer assets. The U.S. 10-year bond, currently priced at 103, has seen steady gains. This movement follows the latest tariff policies, which have strained trade relations with Canada and China, adding to investor anxieties.

Volatility Spikes: VIX Fear Index Surges

Market uncertainty has driven the VIX fear gauge above the critical 25 level, indicating a strong risk-off sentiment. As economic concerns mount, volatility remains a dominant force in shaping short-term market movements.

Key Economic Data Releases: Market Catalysts Ahead

This week brings high-impact economic releases that could further influence market direction. A weaker-than-expected print could send U.S. equities and the dollar further downward. Traders should remain cautious and monitor these developments closely.

For analysis comparison, check out this previous forecast in this link.​

DOW: Testing Crucial Support at 41,732.75

Daily

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is trading near its support level of 41,732.75. If this level fails to hold, we could see further breakdowns, pushing the index into a broader downtrend.

4-Hour

A potential short opportunity could emerge if a rebound at the recent Fair Value Gap fails, confirming further downside momentum.

NAS: Tumbling Amid Tariff Wars

The Nasdaq Composite has been hit hard by ongoing trade tensions, plummeting over 13% since March 3, 2025, following increased tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China. This reflects investor concerns about corporate earnings and broader economic impacts.

4-Hour

Technical indicators show no clear signs of recovery as moving averages continue to support the downtrend.

Daily

S&P: Further Weakness Looms

4-Hour

The S&P 500 remains on a downward trajectory, showing continued weakness as bearish momentum builds.

Daily

The index could head towards 5,382.14 unless buyers step in to drive a reversal.

Navigating a Bearish Market: Trading Strategies

Key Approaches for Entry & Exit in a Downtrend

1. Breakout Strategy 
   • Identify consolidation or range-bound price action.
   • Wait for a confirmed breakout with price closing beyond the breakout level.
   • Enter at the breakout and place stop-loss behind the previous range.
2. Pullback Strategy 
   • Look for a break of a key level.
   • Wait for price to retest the breakout level.
   • Set a limit or pending order at the breakout level and place stops behind recent structure.

As trade tensions persist, financial markets remain highly volatile, with equities facing downward pressure. Safe-haven assets such as U.S. bonds continue to attract investors, while the VIX fear gauge signals elevated risk levels.

With critical economic data releases on the horizon, traders should remain cautious, focus on technical signals, and adapt their strategies to the evolving market landscape.

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