NFP Day: My Strategy for Trading the US Dollar

It’s Friday—the first Friday of the month—which means one thing: Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Day. Volatility is about to hit the markets, and I’m ready to take advantage of the movement. I’ll break down what I expect from today’s NFP release, how I plan to trade it, and what impact it could have on the US dollar and gold.  

The Key Data: What to Watch 

The NFP numbers drop at 12:30am here in Australia. The market consensus is 169,000, down from the previous 256,000. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.1%, while private non-farm payrolls are forecasted to come in at 141,000, down from 223,000.  

One of the most important figures in today’s release is average hourly earnings, which is projected to dip slightly to 3.8% from the previous 2.9%. A lower wage growth number could indicate slowing inflation pressures, which would be a key signal for the Federal Reserve’s next move.  

What Does This Mean for the Market?

The data is mixed. The unemployment rate remains stable, aligning with the Federal Reserve’s projections of 4.0% - 4.2% for 2025. That suggests no major surprises there. However, if the NFP comes in significantly lower than expected, it could signal a cooling labor market, putting pressure on the US dollar.  

Personally, I expect the NFP number to be slightly stronger than consensus—somewhere around 170,000 - 174,000.  We recently had better-than-expected PMI data from the US, with both services and manufacturing holding above the 50-mark, indicating economic expansion. This tells me that hiring activity likely remains steady.  

Final Thoughts

I’m expecting a strong NFP tonight, but I remain open to all possibilities. The key is to stay patient, react to the data, and manage risk effectively. I hope this breakdown helps you in your own trading decisions today.

Wishing you all a great weekend and successful trades! 🚀💰  

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