2025-04-29 11:26:41
Geopolitical risk has returned to center stage, reigniting volatility across global markets.
A wave of fresh developments — from worsening trade standoffs to battlefield escalations — is challenging the recent calm and pushing safe-haven demand sharply higher.
Here’s what’s unfolding across the global stage:
The U.S.-China trade relationship suffered another major setback this week, with fresh tariff actions and hardened rhetoric intensifying market fears.
Despite earlier hopes for de-escalation, both sides have dug in deeper, raising new risks for supply chains, inflation, and global growth.
Key developments:
Adding to the tension, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reaffirmed that tariffs will stay unless China offers meaningful concessions.
There are still no formal trade talks scheduled, and Washington is accelerating efforts to diversify supply chains through partnerships with India, Japan, and South Korea.
Russia-Ukraine: Spring Offensive Escalates Conflict
As if economic tensions weren’t enough, geopolitical risks flared up again across Europe’s eastern flank.
Russia launched a sweeping spring offensive over the weekend, sharply escalating fighting across northeastern Ukraine — and dragging new players into the battlefield.
Latest battlefield and diplomatic developments:
The war is widening beyond Russia and Ukraine — a worrying sign for European stability, energy markets, and global risk assets.
Amid the louder headlines of war and trade, a quieter but equally important development has unfolded. Iran has offered a major economic incentive to restart nuclear talks — a rare opening that could reshape the Middle East’s political and financial landscape if it gains traction.
If these talks gain momentum, it could mean a significant reshaping of oil markets, regional security alignments, and investor sentiment toward emerging markets. This could also ease tensions, allowing calmness in the markets to take its ground.
After an initial dip on hopes of easing trade tensions, gold quickly rebounded as reality set in — the world’s risks are growing, not shrinking.
Currently, Gold is holding its ground after bouncing from the Daily Fair Value Gap resting at 3233.59 - 3282.00 level. With this level still intact, weakness is still far from being obvious. More upside is still ahead as uncertainty looms.
4-Hour
The 4-hour timeframe shows that gold is positioning itself ahead of this week’s key events, with the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report — the main highlight — set to drive major volatility.
Potential Scenarios
A packed week of key U.S. data — including GDP, PCE inflation, ISM manufacturing, and Non-Farm Payrolls — could inject major volatility into the dollar.
Stronger-than-expected prints may boost the greenback and weigh on gold short term, while weaker data could revive Fed rate cut bets and support gold upside.
With geopolitical risks already driving safe-haven demand, gold remains well-positioned to benefit if uncertainty deepens or economic momentum shows cracks.
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