Gold Forecast: Breakout or Breakdown? $3,350 Level Holds for $3,400 Target

Jasper Osita - Market Analyst

2025-07-15 14:09:41

Gold respects key demand at $3,350, buoyed by trade war fears and record central bank accumulation.
Bullish scenario plays out, with price reacting to the Bullish Fair Value Gap and eyeing breakout above $3,370.
Technical forecast leans bullish, with $3,400–$3,450 in sight if $3,340 support holds; invalidation below FVG risks $3,310–$3,260 pullback.

Gold Renews Strength, Gears Up for Another Run

Over the past week, gold has tightened its grip as a safe-haven asset, buoyed by increasing global economic uncertainty and trade tensions. U.S. threats of hefty tariffs on the EU and Mexico have driven prices to a three-week peak around $3,354-$3,370 level. Meanwhile, central banks have been accumulating gold at record pace purchasing over 1,000 tons annually, with 43% planning more acquisitions in the next year. This institutional demand underpins gold’s long-term strength.

Tariff Threats + Bank Accumulation

U.S.–EU/Mexico Tariff Threats

President Trump's proposal of a 30% tariff on EU and Mexican imports triggered safe-haven flows into gold, lifting spot prices to $3,355-3,370.

Central Bank Accumulation

World Gold Council data shows central banks buying more gold annually than in the previous decade driving gold to its record high of $3,500 in April.

Bullish Scenario Unfolding from Fair Value Gap

Previous Analysis: **Bitcoin Breaks Out, Gold Eyes $3,400, Nasdaq Powers Up, USD up next? – What’s Next for this week?**

Gold's current price behavior aligns precisely with what we outlined in yesterday’s live trading session: a pullback into the $3,350 Bullish Fair Value Gap, followed by an anticipated continuation.

Current

This clean structure showcases:

A bullish FVG marked between $3,340-$3,350, acting as support.
Price dipped slightly after failing to break $3,370, yet held above $3,350, respecting the bullish order flow.
Our projection was for price to reject the FVG, re-accumulate, and then push up to the $3,370 high with $3,400-$3,420 set as targets.

Bullish Validation:

We are still bullish unless price breaks below $3,340 (invalidating the FVG).
If $3,370 breaks cleanly, the next upside targets are $3,400 and $3,450.
This zone was emphasized as a "must-hold level" for gold bulls to maintain momentum.

Technical Outlook

Bullish Scenario: FVG Rejection and Breakout Toward New Highs

Gold is showing signs of bullish continuation after successfully retesting the $3,350 Bullish Fair Value Gap (FVG). The recent higher low formed above this level confirms that buyers are stepping in aggressively to defend and hold the line.

Bullish Confirmation:

Price rejected from the FVG and formed a bullish engulfing candle with follow-through
Price now eyes the $3,365.77 minor resistance for a breakout.

Invalidation: Break and close below $3,340

Upside Targets:

$3,400 – Key psychological and structural target
$3,450 – All-time high level target

This scenario aligns with our current bias bulls remain in control as long as the FVG holds and price continues printing higher lows.

Bearish Scenario: FVG Breakdown Signals Deeper Pullback

If price fails to break and hold above $3,365.77 and closes below the $3,350-$3,340 Bullish FVG, this could trigger a deeper sell-off.

Bearish Trigger:

Rejection from $3,365.77
Breakdown below $3,340

Invalidation: Bullish breakout above $3,370

Downside Targets:

$3,310 – Liquidity zone
$3,285 – Previous support
$3,260 – Swing demand area

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This content may have been written by a third party. ACY makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplies by any third-party. This content is information only, and does not constitute financial, investment or other advice on which you can rely.

Auteur

Jasper has been in the markets since 2019 trading currencies, indices and commodities like Gold. His approach in the market is heavily accompanied by technical analysis and of course, supported by fundamentals. He has a background in trading proprietary firms and has been teaching students how to navigate themselves in the markets from basic to advance concepts.

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Les prix ne sont qu'indicatifs

Gold Forecast: Breakout or Breakdown? $3,350 Level Holds for $3,400 Target

Gold Renews Strength, Gears Up for Another Run

Tariff Threats + Bank Accumulation

U.S.–EU/Mexico Tariff Threats

Central Bank Accumulation

Bullish Scenario Unfolding from Fair Value Gap

Bullish Validation:

Technical Outlook

Bullish Scenario: FVG Rejection and Breakout Toward New Highs

Bearish Scenario: FVG Breakdown Signals Deeper Pullback

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