Gold (XAU/USD) Price Action Forecast: Will XAU/USD Drop to $4650?
2026-04-23 16:17:28
Key Takeaways:
- The broader XAU/USD trend remains highly bullish with buyers supporting dips.
- Daily and 4H charts reveal a head and shoulders pattern and a double top at resistance.
- Price is currently reacting at the $4711.305 - $4728.538 minor resistance zone.
- A proper retest could trigger a rapid drop down to the $4650 take-profit area.
Welcome back to my latest market update. Today, we are digging deep into the Gold price action forecast for the upcoming London session. I have noticed some wild shifts in the market lately. The charts tell a story.
What is Gold (XAU/USD) Simple Price Action Telling Using Simple Price Action?
April 22 Weekly Chart
In my previous blog, “Gold (XAU/USD) Technical Forecast: Pushing to $4958 or Dropping $4650?”, I clearly shows that the weekly trend remains strongly bullish.
What the chart shows:
- Sustained bullish momentum: Buyers continue to support price on every dip
- Strong structure: Price action remains aligned with an overall uptrend
- Upside potential: The market still favors further bullish continuation
While short-term pullbacks may occur, the bigger picture remains bullish, with buyers maintaining control and favoring further upside.
April 22 Daily Chart
In my previous blog post on gold, I highlighted that the daily timeframe is showing a short-term shift that does not align with the higher-timeframe bullish trend. Currently, prices are reacting at a key minor resistance zone.
What the chart shows:
- Price is holding around $4765.344 – $4790.485
- A potential head and shoulders formation suggests a possible reversal
- Buyers are weakening while sellers begin to take control
- A bearish daily close would reinforce short-term selling pressure
While the broader trend remains bullish, short-term momentum is turning bearish, presenting a potential opportunity for a quick downside trade if resistance continues to hold.
Current Daily Chart
On gold(XAU/USD) current daily timeframe, Gold is showing a clear rejection at a minor resistance zone, signaling a potential short-term shift in momentum.
What the chart shows:
- Price is reacting around $4765.344 – $4790.485, showing strong selling interest.
- A head and shoulders formation is being respected, hinting at a possible trend reversal.
- Buyers are weakening while sellers are starting to step in.
- A daily bearish pin bar confirms rejection and short-term selling pressure.
The overall trend remains bullish, but in the short term, momentum is turning bearish; creating a potential opportunity for a quick day trade to the downside if resistance holds.
Current 4h Chart
On Gold 4H timeframe, price action shows a clear reaction at a minor resistance zone, suggesting short-term weakness.
What the chart shows:
- Price is reacting within the 4h minor resistance level $4711.305 – $4728.538.
- A double top is being respected, signaling a potential shift from bullish to bearish momentum.
- The latest 4H candle shows clear rejection, reinforcing short-term selling pressure.
What is the Potential Path to $4650 on Gold Using Simple Price Action?
Gold (XAU/USD) may continue its bearish momentum if:
- Properly retests daily resistance level $4711.305 – $4728.538, confirming sellers are in control.
- Look for a bullish engulfing on 1H, 2H, or 30M at resistance level after the retest.
- Take-profit area is $4650.
This represents a higher-probability setup, as it is aligned with the overall market trend.
Final Thoughts on Gold
Gold is still strong overall; the bigger picture is clearly bullish, buyers are still in control.
But right now, price action is telling us a different short-term story. Sellers are stepping in at resistance, and momentum is starting to shift.
If this rejection holds, we could see a clean move down toward $4650.
Focus on what the market is showing you right now. The trend may be up, but short-term moves can still go down.
Be patient, wait for clear confirmation, and don’t rush your trades. The best opportunities come when everything is clear and aligned.
Stay patient, wait for confirmation, and let the market come to you.
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Disclaimer:
Trading forex and derivative instruments involves substantial risk and may not be suitable for all individuals. Only use funds that you are prepared to lose. It is important to understand how these markets work and the risks involved before trading, and to seek independent financial advice if needed. All market analysis and insights shared are intended for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. April 23, 2026
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