Bitcoin Extends Decline as Price Slides To Deep Discount – Is a Larger Breakdown Coming?

Jasper Osita - Market Analyst

2025-11-19 14:47:15

Bitcoin continues its controlled selloff, pressing deeper into the Weekly Fair Value Gap, where the market is attempting to stabilize after weeks of consistent lower-timeframe weakness.
Macro risk-off sentiment, cooling ETF flows, and a structurally bearish chart remain the main drivers behind Bitcoin’s decline.
BTC must hold the 86,500–92,000 Weekly FVG to produce a relief rally. A clean breakdown opens the path toward the Weekly Order Block at 83,000–78,000.

Why Bitcoin Is Selling Off – The Real Drivers Behind the Drop

Bitcoin’s decline is not caused by a single headline. It’s the result of a convergence of macro and technical pressures:

1. A Global Risk-Off Phase Is Returning

Markets have rotated back into defensive positioning:

Stronger USD environment
Mixed equity sentiment
Tightening liquidity conditions

Crypto is the most sensitive risk asset. When liquidity dries up, Bitcoin typically reacts first — and hardest.

2. Cooling ETF Demand

Spot ETF inflows were the backbone of Bitcoin’s earlier rally. But over recent weeks:

Daily inflows have slowed
Net flows are flattening
Institutional activity is less aggressive

This reduces consistent bid support and makes every downside move more pronounced.

3. Thin Liquidity Amplifying Each Move

Market depth is weakening:

Lower stablecoin inflow
Less capital entering futures markets
Funding rates turning mildly negative

Combined with a bearish trend, this creates an environment where each sell impulse extends further than expected.

4. Technical Breakdown Catalyzing Additional Selling

Once Bitcoin broke below the 96,000–98,000 support, the trend flipped decisively.

Since then:

Lower highs continue on every bounce
Candle bodies are large on sell days, tight on retracements
Weekly inefficiencies below are pulling price downward

This is one of the cleanest bearish structures Bitcoin has shown in months — and until something shifts, the bias remains lower.

Overall Narrative: BTC’s Trend Is Bearish, But Now at a Decision Point

Bitcoin is now trading inside a large Weekly Fair Value Gap between 92,000 and 86,500 — an area where the market should attempt to react if buyers want to stop the bleeding.

The zone acts as:

A magnet for price
A potential area for higher-timeframe reaccumulation
A dividing line between a corrective pullback and a deeper trend reversal

However, if this FVG fails, BTC opens a much larger downside toward a Weekly Order Block at 83,000–78,000 — your next major higher-timeframe liquidity pocket.

Technical Outlook

Bitcoin remains in a well-defined downtrend across both the 1D and 4H charts:

Daily: Lower highs, lower lows, and bearish candle bodies dominating
4H: Impulsive sell legs, shallow pullbacks, and FVG violations on every bounce
Market Structure: No bullish break of structure yet on any meaningful timeframe

BTC is now sitting at the mid-section of the Weekly FVG. The next daily candles will determine if this becomes:

A bullish reaction zone, or
A bearish continuation platform

Bullish Scenario – Weekly FVG Defends and BTC Attempts a Relief Rally

This matches your second chart.

For a bullish correction to emerge, Bitcoin must:

1. Hold the Weekly FVG (92,000–86,500)

This is the last major structure before weekly imbalance opens further downside.

2. Produce a sweep-and-reclaim

Ideal bullish reaction:

Price dips toward 87,000–86,500
Wicks below current lows
Reclaims back inside the FVG with strength

This indicates absorption of sell pressure.

3. Break above 93,000–94,000

This level is essential:

It is the first 4H lower-high
It’s also the midpoint of the imbalance
A break here creates a market structure shift

4. Upside targets

If BTC confirms the shift:

94,000–96,000: first corrective target
98,000: prior broken support
100,000–102,000: extended retracement and upside inefficiency

This scenario does not signal a full bottom — only a structured corrective rally inside a broader downtrend.

Bearish Scenario – BTC Rejects FVG and Drops Into Weekly OB

This matches your first chart.

If Bitcoin fails to regain control inside the Weekly FVG:

1. Rejection below 92,000–89,000 confirms weakness

Any reaction that stalls under the upper FVG boundary implies sellers remain dominant.

2. Break below 86,500 is the trigger

A clean daily close beneath this level activates the next leg.

3. Minor pullback → lower high → continuation

Structure likely follows the drawn path:

Pullback into 88,000–90,000
Failure to break higher
Continuation toward Weekly OB

4. Downside targets

83,000: top of Weekly OB
80,000: midpoint of OB
78,000: full sweep of the block

This is currently the higher-probability scenario until proven otherwise.

Final Thoughts

Bitcoin is now testing a critical higher-timeframe zone.

The trend is still bearish, but the location signals that the market is nearing an inflection point.

Two simple rules define the next major move:

Hold 86,500 → relief rally possible
Lose 86,500 → 83,000–78,000 becomes inevitable

Until BTC reclaims 93,000–94,000, any upside remains corrective — not a trend reversal.

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This content may have been written by a third party. ACY makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplies by any third-party. This content is information only, and does not constitute financial, investment or other advice on which you can rely.

Auteur

Jasper has been in the markets since 2019 trading currencies, indices and commodities like Gold. His approach in the market is heavily accompanied by technical analysis and of course, supported by fundamentals. He has a background in trading proprietary firms and has been teaching students how to navigate themselves in the markets from basic to advance concepts.

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