U.S. Court Blocks Trump Tariffs, NZD Strengthens on Hawkish Central Bank Tone

This morning, I’m tracking a series of fast-moving developments in the markets. The most significant news: a U.S. Federal Court has blocked former President Trump from imposing new tariffs, ruling the move illegal. That’s ignited a clear risk-on mood, driving safe-haven assets like the U.S. dollar, gold, and the Swiss franc lower.

On the flip side, risk-sensitive currencies — including the New Zealand dollar (NZD) and Australian dollar (AUD) — are rallying. This strength in the NZD follows a surprise hawkish tone from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ), despite a widely anticipated 25 basis point rate cut.

At first, the NZD weakened, as expected. But once the RBNZ's monetary policy statement and press conference were released, the narrative shifted. It became clear that some committee members had favoured holding rates steady. That unexpectedly hawkish signal triggered a bullish reversal in the NZD, confirming that context — not just the policy move — is what truly drives the markets.

Meanwhile, the broader market sentiment is being shaped by easing geopolitical concerns and fading fear around trade wars. Risk assets are getting a boost. We're seeing commodity currencies rise and traditional safe havens sell off — all consistent with this shift in tone.

As always, it's not just about the headlines — it's about how markets interpret the details. And right now, the message is clear: risk is back on the table, and currencies are reflecting that optimism.

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