USD/CHF Forecast: CHF Leads G10 on Bank of America Quant Flows

• Bank of America quant signals put CHF ahead of G10 peers, with options skew surging as demand rises.
• USD pressured by weak NFP print and annual revision, while CPI looms as the next key test.
• USD/CHF bearish bias intact below 0.7967 FVG; bulls need reclaim above 0.8000, bears target 0.7911 liquidity.

Bank of America Quant Signals: Why CHF Is Leading G10 FX

Bank of America’s quantitative FX models have turned decisively bullish on the Swiss franc, putting it ahead of all other G10 currencies. The most telling signal came from derivatives markets: one-month options skew for CHF rose 1.54%, the sharpest move across the G10 complex. This surge reflects growing demand for CHF call options (bets on franc strength) versus puts, as investors rotate into the franc in anticipation of further appreciation.

Flows from both U.S. and Asian investors are reinforcing this skew. With geopolitical risk elevated and September historically a risk-off month, CHF is being treated less like a hedge and more like a core safe-haven allocation. Correlations with gold highlight this structural demand for defensive assets.

Swiss National Bank and Domestic Backdrop

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is quietly reinforcing the franc’s strength. Inflation is relatively stable, leaving little urgency to cut rates. Intervention risk exists but remains muted, with recent sight deposit data suggesting the SNB is tolerating CHF strength for now.

Switzerland’s steady economic outlook and strong current account surplus give CHF a solid domestic foundation. Combined with external safe-haven flows, this creates a powerful dual tailwind for the currency.

US Dollar Pressure: NFP and Revisions Add Weight Before CPI

While CHF has strong internal momentum, USD is under pressure externally:

• NFP Weakness: Recent payrolls disappointed, reinforcing the perception that U.S. labor momentum is fading.
• NFP Annual Revision: Nearly 911k jobs were erased from April 2024 to March 2025, the steepest cut in decades. This downgrade reshaped the labor narrative, showing the economy has been weaker for longer.
• CPI Risk Ahead: With CPI around the corner, USD remains pinned. If inflation data confirms softness, the case for Fed easing grows stronger - piling more pressure on the dollar.

For USD/CHF, this mix is particularly bearish. CHF is attracting capital as a safe-haven while USD is losing credibility due to weak labor data. The franc therefore becomes the natural beneficiary of both domestic strength and U.S. fragility.

Technical Forecast on USD/CHF

Before: Breakdown After NFP Pressure

Following the NFP disappointment and annual revision, USD/CHF broke decisively lower, slicing through prior demand zones and extending downside momentum. Sellers took full control, driving price into the 0.791–0.795 liquidity pocket, which had been highlighted in the previous webinar as a key potential reaction zone.

This zone aligned with historical support levels and liquidity clusters, suggesting the market might pause or attempt a short-term rebound there.

After: Rebound From Support

As seen on the most recent charts, USD/CHF tapped into the 0.7944–0.7911 range, triggering buying interest. Price has since rebounded modestly, now consolidating near 0.7970–0.7980, testing whether this bounce can extend higher or fade into renewed CHF strength.

The rebound is corrective for now, but it shows traders respected the liquidity pool highlighted earlier.

Bullish Scenario: Reclaim and Expansion Higher

This move would signal that buyers have absorbed supply inside the FVG, potentially fueled by a hot U.S. CPI print or easing CHF demand.

• Trigger: A sustained reclaim and close above the 0.7956–0.7967 H4 FVG zone.
• Follow-through: Price consolidates above the imbalance and extends toward 0.8000–0.8020, where the next liquidity pocket sits.
• Targets:
  • Immediate: 0.8000 psychological handle
  • Extended: 0.8020–0.8040 resistance zone

Bearish Scenario: FVG Rejection and Breakdown

Rejection would confirm that sellers are defending the imbalance, aligning with Bank of America’s bullish CHF quant signals and ongoing USD pressure from the NFP revision.

• Trigger: Sharp rejection from the 0.7956–0.7967 H4 FVG zone, failing to sustain a breakout.
• Follow-through: Price rotates lower, retesting 0.7944, before extending toward the swing low at 0.7911.
• Targets:
  • Immediate: 0.7944 local support
  • Extended: 0.7911 liquidity pool

Final Thoughts

The Swiss franc’s bullish quant signals are not happening in isolation - they align with the U.S. dollar’s labor market cracks and the looming CPI test. Bank of America’s models capture this structural momentum, with CHF skew and safe-haven flows reinforcing its leadership.

For USD/CHF, this dual narrative - CHF strength + USD weakness - cements the bearish outlook. Unless the dollar can reclaim resistance on the back of hot inflation, the franc’s momentum is likely to extend toward deeper support zones.

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