2025-04-16 12:08:28
Gold prices surged to record highs, reaffirming its status as a premier safe-haven asset amid escalating global trade tensions and a weakening U.S. dollar.
The yellow metal's rally was fueled by a confluence of factors, including intensified U.S.–China tariff disputes, central bank acquisitions, bearish US data and investor rotation from the dollar to Europe and Asian assets.
The trade standoff between the U.S. and China intensified as both nations imposed steep tariffs on each other's goods. The U.S. increased tariffs on Chinese imports to 145%, prompting China to retaliate with 125% tariffs on U.S. products. This tit-for-tat escalation has heightened fears of a prolonged economic slowdown, prompting investors to seek refuge in gold.
The U.S. dollar index fell to a three-year low, making gold more affordable for holders of other currencies.
Dollar already tapped the 1st layer of volume imbalance at 100.065 - 100.700. As long as we are below that level, we could see further downside with the greenback.
For the previous forecast, refer to my previous blog: https://acy.com/en/market-news/market-analysis/usd-struggles-tariff-recession-fears-j-o-04142025-102157/
Analysts from Commerzbank noted that the dollar's decline is eroding its status as a safe asset, leading investors to consider gold as a viable alternative.
Gold’s momentum in recent months has been strongly underpinned by persistent central bank demand, which remains a key structural driver of the current bull trend.
According to data from the World Gold Council, central banks collectively added over 1,045 tonnes of gold to their reserves in 2024, marking one of the highest annual purchases on record. This trend has carried over into 2025, with Q1 data showing net positive inflows, particularly from emerging market economies and countries looking to reduce their reliance on the U.S. dollar.
For reference: https://www.gold.org/goldhub/research/gold-demand-trends/gold-demand-trends-full-year-2024/central-banks
This sustained institutional demand acts as a “price floor” for gold. Unlike speculative flows, central bank purchases are long-term and relatively insensitive to short-term market moves, which contributes to gold’s resilience even during pullbacks.
Investor Shift from Treasuries to Gold
With U.S. Treasuries underperforming due to inflationary pressures and high debt levels, investors are increasingly turning to gold. BlackRock's global chief investment strategist highlighted gold's superior diversification benefits in the current economic climate.
4-Hour
Gold prices surged past the $3200 mark, reaching a record high of $3245.28 per ounce on April 11 and is now trading at new all-time high levels soaring at $3275 as of this posts creation.
We already projected this move since the past weeks with a global turmoil influenced by tariffs and trade wars.
Check out my previous blogs for reference:
https://acy.com/en/market-news/market-analysis/gold-hits-record-highs-j-o-03312025-171122/
https://acy.com/en/market-news/market-analysis/gold-price-update-next-bull-run-j-o-03272025-113758/
Analysts from Goldman Sachs have revised their year-end gold price forecast to $3,700, citing strong central bank demand and recession concerns.
Institutional traders (typically hedge funds and large speculators) cut back their long exposure significantly this week — closing out over 58,000 long contracts. That’s a meaningful reduction and the largest component of the net change.
However, short positions also declined, suggesting this isn't a pivot into outright bearish bets — but rather a tactical pullback or profit-taking event after gold’s recent rally to record highs.
What This Tells Us:
Institutional players are not betting against gold — they’re simply reducing exposure after a strong move. This could lead to short-term consolidation or pullbacks, but long-term demand remains intact, especially with central banks still buying and macro uncertainty elevated.
As geopolitical tensions persist and economic indicators remain volatile, gold is poised to maintain its upward trajectory. Monitor upcoming economic data releases, primarily, updates from tariff policies and central bank policies, which could influence gold's momentum.
Watch for re-accumulation signs on dips — that’s where the next wave of institutional interest may reappear.
Learn how to navigate yourself in times of turmoil. Check out my market education links:
Want to learn how to trade like the Smart Money? Check out my new contents:
https://acy.com/en/market-news/education/smc-playbook-series-beginners-guide-j-o-04032025-155530/
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This content may have been written by a third party. ACY makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or other information supplies by any third-party. This content is information only, and does not constitute financial, investment or other advice on which you can rely.
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