Commodity Markets in an Overall Pause: Gold Discount, US Yields Weakness, and Gas & Crude Oil

Overview

1. Gold Analysis: Discounted Levels and Bullish Caution

Gold is currently trading below the equilibrium of the 4-hour range, hovering near the 2864.98 support level. Despite a bullish bias, the absence of higher highs and lows signals caution for upside potential.

2. US10Y: Weak Yields Favoring Gold

US yields have shown no signs of strength over the past five weeks, diminishing USD's appeal and enhancing Gold's attractiveness. The continued downtrend in yields supports a potential bullish outlook for Gold.

3. Energy Market Dynamics: GAS and Crude Oil

GAS experienced a sharp drop, creating a gap that could support a bearish bias unless closed above the 3.612 - 3.692 level. Meanwhile, Crude Oil remains range-bound between 70.126 and 73.362, signaling a wait-and-see approach for traders.

Gold on Discount: Is the Bullish Bias Still in Play?

Gold's upsides move lost momentum last week, closing near the previous week's level at 2880.87. Despite briefly touching 2942.69, Gold is now in a range, trading below the equilibrium or the 50% level of the current 4-hour trading range.

Currently, prices are hovering close to the 2864.98 support level, but a test of this level is yet to happen. While the bullish bias remains intact, caution is necessary as there are no clear bullish structures, such as higher highs and lows, indicating a strong upside potential. Traders should keep an eye on this key support level to gauge the next move.

US10Y: Weak Yields Favoring Gold's Appeal

US yields have been on a downtrend since last Friday, showing no signs of recovery. Over the past five weeks, the lack of strength in US yields has made the USD less attractive to investors. This environment makes Gold a more appealing investment option as it benefits from lower yields and a weaker USD.

If yields continue to struggle, we could see sustained interest in Gold, potentially fueling a bullish breakout. Monitoring yield movements is crucial for anticipating any shifts in Gold's momentum.

GAS Weekly Outlook: Bearish Bias or Bullish Reversal?

Daily and 4-Hour Analysis

GAS experienced a significant drop alongside Gold but has not fully transitioned into a bearish environment. Currently, there are no strong bearish confluences, such as lower highs and lower lows.

A downside risk exists as the price gap created at the start of this week (3.612 - 3.692) remains unfilled. This gap could maintain a bearish bias unless the price closes above it. Conversely, closing above this level could signal a potential bullish reversal. Traders should watch for price action around this gap to determine the next trend direction.

Crude Oil: Range-Bound and Waiting for Breakout

Crude Oil is currently trading within a narrow range of 70.126 - 73.362, showing no significant development. The best strategy here is patience—waiting for a clear breakout from this range before committing to a position.

A break above 73.362 could indicate bullish momentum, while a drop below 70.126 may signal a bearish continuation. Until then, a wait-and-see approach is advisable as the market lacks clear directional cues.

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