2025-04-29 11:09:43
Global sentiment has shifted back into defensive mode after a string of escalating trade headlines and geopolitical risks.
Renewed tensions between the U.S. and China reignited market fears, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reaffirming that tariffs will remain firmly in place unless Beijing takes real steps to de-escalate.
The U.S.-China trade relationship, already fragile, took a major blow this week.
Markets had hoped for a cooling-off period after earlier escalations, but fresh moves on both sides made it clear: the trade war is not only alive — it's deepening.
Rather than stabilizing, the U.S.-China economic confrontation appears set to intensify, adding another heavy layer of risk onto the global economy.
Following the renewed tariff crossfire, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent made it clear over the weekend that Washington sees no benefit in blinking first. “China must be the one to de-escalate”, Trump also comments. His comments laid out the U.S. position firmly — and added new pressure on China to act.
Unless Beijing makes the first move, the stalemate could stretch on — with real consequences for supply chains, businesses, and inflation outlooks.
Despite heightened U.S.-China tensions and a wave of global risk concerns since late last week, the Australian dollar (AUD) and New Zealand dollar (NZD) have shown surprising resilience.
Both currencies have managed to hold firm, even as headlines point toward worsening trade relations and fresh economic risks.
Without clear and lasting improvement in China's economy or a calming of trade tensions, the balance of risks still points toward potential downside for both currencies.
As previously mentioned on our previous blog: https://acy.com/en/market-news/market-analysis/dxy-breaks-below-100-dollar-rebound-nfp-impact-j-o-204282025-135756/, dollar weakness still looms ahead key economic data for the US releases this week.
Non-Farm Payrolls will be the main event this week.
Daily
Despite ongoing pressure from the U.S.-China trade tensions and renewed escalations, the Australian dollar remains resilient, holding above key moving averages and consolidating within a tight range.
With risk-on sentiment still broadly intact, there is potential for further upside as long as support levels continue to hold.
4-Hour
Potential Scenarios
These breaks would come into fruition with confluence on key economic developments especially with regards to the US-China trade war.
Daily
Compared to its correlated currency, the Aussie, Kiwi is in a much stronger trend as its trading far more higher relative to the previous highs price broke off.
4-Hour
With Aussie benefitting from the risk-on sentiment, New Zealand dollar is also gearing up for a new direction, either we go bearish or a renewed bullish momentum.
Potential Scenarios
The Australian and New Zealand dollars have been remarkably steady in the face of rising risks — but that steadiness could be tested quickly if global sentiment sours or Chinese economic data underwhelms.
For now, the market is giving them the benefit of the doubt. But beneath the surface, the foundation is getting shakier — and the next few weeks could determine whether AUD and NZD can weather the storm or slip lower in line with growing fundamental pressures.
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