NFP Day Showdown: Will Weak Jobs Data Sink the Dollar?

Hey everyone! Happy Friday! It’s the first Friday of the month, which means one thing—NFP day! The Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report is one of the most exciting events in the market, and we’ve all been eagerly awaiting this.

Earlier in the week, we had the JOLTS data, which wasn’t great. Expectations were around 8 million, but it came in at 7.6 million. This 400k miss shook up the markets, especially the US Dollar Index. So now, all eyes are on today’s NFP.

Currently, the consensus for August is 164,000 jobs, up from the previous 114,000. But with recent data showing signs of weakness, many think today’s NFP could come in lower than expected. That could spell trouble for the USD and may lead to some big movements in gold, especially since traders are on edge.

It's not just about the jobs number though—keep an eye on the unemployment rate and average hourly earnings. If they come in lower than expected, we might see a weaker dollar. But if the numbers surprise to the upside, the USD could rally hard.

The stakes are even higher with the Fed meeting just around the corner. Will they cut rates by 25 basis points or go for 50? Market expectations have been shifting lately, and a 50-point cut would be a big deal for the dollar, possibly signaling further weakness.

I’ll be watching EUR/USD closely today. If the data favours the dollar, I’m looking to short EUR/USD, especially if it approaches the 1.12 mark.

Stay sharp out there, and if you want more insights, don’t forget to register for our Tuesday webinar. It’s packed with analysis to help you navigate these market moves. Have an amazing weekend, and see you next week!

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