Nasdaq Soars to Fresh All-Time Highs on Tech, AI Momentum - CPI Next?

Jasper Osita - Market Analyst

2025-09-11 12:50:27

Nasdaq-100 hits record 24,000 on Oracle’s AI cloud forecast and semiconductor strength. CPI release now key to breakout or pullback.

  • Oracle’s AI cloud forecast and semiconductor leadership powered Nasdaq-100 into all-time highs at 24,000.
  • CPI release is the decisive catalyst, with soft data likely to reinforce momentum and hot data risking reversal.
  • Technical outlook shows Nasdaq in a tight 23,703–24,015 range, coiling for a breakout or breakdown on inflation results.

Earnings & Sector Drivers Fuel Nasdaq’s Surge

The Nasdaq-100’s rally into all-time high territory at 24,000 is being powered by sector strength and macro anticipation:

  • Oracle’s Cloud & AI Expansion: Oracle projects $144B in cloud/AI revenue by 2030, with a 359% YoY surge in booked orders to $455B. This validates institutional demand for AI/cloud infrastructure.
  • Semiconductor Leadership: Nvidia, AMD, and TSMC continue to anchor Nasdaq’s gains, with bullish guidance reinforcing the long-term AI investment theme.
  • Broader Corporate Guidance: Positive EPS outlooks across S&P 500 tech components suggest sector momentum is resilient.
  • Macro Tailwinds: Markets are leaning dovish into the CPI release, supported by a weaker-than-expected PPI (-0.1% vs 0.3% expected) and slowing labor signals from the NFP annual revision (-911K).

CPI Anticipation: A Make-or-Break Macro Catalyst

With CPI due Thursday, Sept 11 at 8:30 PM ET, all eyes are on inflation data as the next volatility driver:

  • Expectations: Core CPI MoM is forecast at 0.3%, with headline YoY seen at 2.9%. Markets are pricing that a softer print could seal the case for a September Fed rate cut.
  • Implications for Nasdaq:
    • Soft CPI → Reinforces growth-stock momentum, validating the bullish breakout and opening upside toward 24,200 - 24,400.
    • Hot CPI → Delays Fed easing expectations, raising the risk of profit-taking and pulling Nasdaq back toward 23,600 - 23,700 demand zones.
  • Positioning Tone: Current price action shows optimism baked in, but traders are aware of the two-sided risk around CPI — it could either accelerate momentum or trigger sharp retracement.

Before & After: How the Bullish Bias Materialized

Before (As Outlined in Forecast Webinar)

In the previous weekly market forecast webinar, the bias was for Nasdaq strength if the 23,650 - 23,700 demand zone held firm.

  • The roadmap projected that price would reclaim liquidity, build structure above this demand, and then target the 23,950 - 24,000 zone where all-time highs awaited.
  • The expectation was that a combination of strong tech earnings and macro relief would provide the catalyst for the breakout.

After (Bias Playing Out)

The Nasdaq followed the script almost step by step:

  • Price respected the 23,700 demand zone, rejecting deeper pullback attempts.
  • It reclaimed bullish order flow and moved into expansion, aligning perfectly with the projected roadmap.
  • Oracle’s earnings acted as the earnings catalyst, while softer PPI data reduced inflation fears — together fueling momentum.
  • The rally extended to 24,000, printing fresh all-time highs exactly where the forecast targeted.

This validates the forecast webinar’s bullish bias, showing how structure + catalysts combined to materialize the upside scenario.

Technical Outlook: Nasdaq Gearing for Another ATH Play?

The Nasdaq-100 is holding in a narrow box between 23,703 support and 24,015 resistance. Buyers pushed the index into fresh all-time highs earlier in the week, but momentum stalled as sellers defended the top. Still, the 23,700 demand zone is holding firm, showing buyers aren’t backing off yet.

This compression reflects a market waiting for today’s CPI release. A softer print could fuel a clean break above 24,015 and open the path toward 24,200 - 24,400, while a hotter number risks a drop through 23,703 and a pullback into 23,600 - 23,500. For now, Nasdaq sits in balance — with CPI set to decide the next move.

Bullish Scenario: Breakout & Continuation

If CPI comes in soft or in line with expectations, the Nasdaq-100 could turn today’s consolidation into a launchpad.

  • Key Trigger: Hold above 23,703 demand zone and reclaim momentum within the current range.
  • Price Action Path: A sweep of the lower side of the box (23,703 - 23,750) could attract buyers, leading to a rally back through 23,900 - 24,000 resistance.
  • Confirmation: A clean break and acceptance above 24,015 all-time high unlocks further upside.
  • Targets:
    • Immediate: 24,200
    • Extension: 24,400+ if momentum buyers pile in post-CPI.

Bearish Scenario: Rejection & Breakdown

If CPI prints hot, the market may reject highs and unwind toward deeper demand zones.

  • Key Trigger: Failure to break above 24,015 followed by a decisive move below 23,800.
  • Price Action Path: Price may fake higher into 24,000, then reverse, running liquidity toward the 23,703 support.
  • Breakdown Signal: A clean close below 23,703 would confirm sellers in control.
  • Targets:
    • First leg: 23,600 - 23,550 demand zone
    • Deeper retracement: 23,400 if macro tone flips hawkish.

Thoughts?

Right now, Nasdaq is sitting in balance between 23,703 and 24,015. CPI is the trigger that will decide which side of this box breaks first:

  • Soft CPI → bullish breakout toward 24,400.
  • Hot CPI → rejection and pullback into 23,600 or lower.

Until then, the index is simply coiling, waiting for the data to provide direction.

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المؤلف

Jasper has been in the markets since 2019 trading currencies, indices and commodities like Gold. His approach in the market is heavily accompanied by technical analysis and of course, supported by fundamentals. He has a background in trading proprietary firms and has been teaching students how to navigate themselves in the markets from basic to advance concepts.

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